by Nassim Nicholas Taleb · Penguin · tapa blanda · ISBN 9780141034591
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«The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable» is Nassim Nicholas Taleb's essay published by Penguin in paperback (480 pages, in English).
Taleb argues that «black swans» —rare, hugely impactful and unpredictable events— shape history and economics more than the foreseeable. Since they are only recognized in hindsight, we tend to rationalize them as if they were avoidable. The author proposes distrusting forecasts and living with uncertainty, protecting oneself from the negative and seizing the positive.
Second title in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Incerto series; the original is from 2007 and this Penguin edition from 2008.
Aimed at a general and academic audience interested in economics, philosophy and risk management.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese-American New York University professor, essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist. His work concerns problems of randomness, probability, complexity, and uncertainty.
